Country research
Research on American demand, investment, labor markets and public policy, with international evidence used to examine the forces shaping domestic economic performance.
Household spending, business investment and public demand reach the economy through different income and financing channels. An assessment of U.S. growth must also account for inventories and imports: a movement in measured GDP need not describe the same change in domestic final demand. Research follows the composition of expenditure and its relationship to income, employment and productive capacity.
Federal, state and local decisions interact through taxes, procurement, grants and regulation. A federal allocation may depend on project selection and execution at another level of government. Monetary conditions reach firms through new borrowing, refinancing and balance-sheet exposure; the same interest-rate change can have different effects across borrowers.
| Research dimension | Measure | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|
| Domestic demand | Real final sales to private domestic purchasers | Separate household consumption and fixed investment from inventories and public demand. |
| Investment | Private fixed investment by type | Distinguish structures, equipment and intellectual property, and identify their price basis. |
| Labor income | Employment, hours and earnings | Read payroll and household measures within their respective survey coverage. |
BEA’s September 30, 2026 national-accounts vintage records second-quarter real GDP growth of 2.2 percent at an annual rate and growth in real final sales to private domestic purchasers of 4.6 percent. The two measures describe different boundaries of demand. The U.S. demand study examines that distinction alongside income and household spending, without attributing the result to a single policy.
Research Report
Public support may change whether, where or when an investment takes place. This report establishes the counterfactual evidence needed to distinguish additional investment from displacement, timing changes and projects that would have proceeded without support.
Read the analysisResearch Report
American growth must be reconciled across expenditure, industry, and input accounts. Dated official evidence and reproducible examples explain why household demand, investment, and productivity describe different aspects of the same production process.
Read the analysisResearch Report
Federal borrowing and tax design can exert opposing pressures on private investment. A dated Treasury refunding, official model evidence, and transparent user-cost calculations separate financing, asset choice, timing, and the policy counterfactual.
Read the analysis37 publications
Research Report
Public support may change whether, where or when an investment takes place. This report establishes the counterfactual evidence needed to distinguish additional investment from displacement, timing changes and projects that would have proceeded without support.
Research Report
American growth must be reconciled across expenditure, industry, and input accounts. Dated official evidence and reproducible examples explain why household demand, investment, and productivity describe different aspects of the same production process.
Research Report
Federal borrowing and tax design can exert opposing pressures on private investment. A dated Treasury refunding, official model evidence, and transparent user-cost calculations separate financing, asset choice, timing, and the policy counterfactual.
Research Report
A change in direct import partners can exceed the shift in upstream value added. Official production evidence and reproducible supply-chain examples distinguish relocation, supplier development, ownership, routing, and the dependencies relevant to resilience.
Research Report
This report separates sector composition, capital intensity, and working time in transatlantic productivity comparisons. Official evidence and a reproducible decomposition show why differences within industries require closer examination before aggregate gaps support policy conclusions.
Research Report
Contract design and financial structure determine when monetary decisions reach borrowers. Evidence from four economies and an original debt-cohort calculation explain why financing costs can keep rising after market rates decline.
Research Report
Official surveys measure different stages of AI adoption. Evidence from the United States, Korea, and Japan and a reproducible workflow calculation distinguish computing expenditure, reported use, labor savings, accepted output, and investment returns.
Research Report
Industrial energy costs depend on reliable delivery, connection timing, and the production process. Four official records and original cost scenarios show how interruptions, backup, and delayed operation can change a location comparison.
Research Report
Population projections do not directly determine labor input. Evidence from four economies and an exact accounting exercise separate demographic change from participation, employment, hours, migration, and the productivity improvements required to sustain output.
Research Report
Financial inflows and project announcements do not establish operating capacity. Official reporting from five economies and an original project ledger separate expenditure, acquisitions, construction, commissioning, utilization, and the timing of realized production.
Economy Study
The September 2026 national-accounts vintage shows why private domestic demand and headline GDP require separate readings. Consumption, fixed investment, inventories and imports provide different evidence about the composition of U.S. growth.
Economy Study
Factory construction measures one stage and one class of industrial investment. The study reconciles construction expenditure, equipment, intellectual property and operating capacity, showing why a building boom cannot be read directly as manufacturing output.
Policy Brief
Semiconductor award conditions determine when support becomes available and what completion means. The original funding framework and subsequent documented amendments show why awards, disbursements, eligible costs, and operating capacity require separate assessment.
Policy Brief
Tax expenditure, legislative revenue cost, recipient benefit, and additional investment are distinct measures. Baselines, timing, behavioral responses, and interactions explain why an incentive's reported fiscal cost cannot establish its economic effectiveness.
Policy Brief
Tariff exposure depends on the product, origin, valuation, applicable text, and transaction date. Separating payment liability from economic incidence explains how contracts, substitution, and supply-chain adjustment distribute the cost over time.
Policy Brief
Permitting reform accelerates infrastructure only when it removes a binding delay. FERC's interconnection framework illustrates why administrative decisions, project readiness, equipment, network upgrades, and commissioning must be assessed within one delivery schedule.
Policy Brief
Workforce performance measures follow different populations and periods. WIOA reporting and a dated state result illustrate why participation, credentials, employment, and earnings need to be linked before evaluating training's additional economic benefit.
Policy Brief
Federal Reserve asset growth can maintain reserve supply without signaling a new accommodation program. The July 2026 report illustrates why purpose, portfolio composition, liability movements, and administered rates must be assessed separately.
Policy Brief
Research deductions and credits affect different spending decisions and tax calculations. Current IRS materials clarify why timing relief, location changes, input prices, and reclassification must be separated from additional research and innovation outcomes.
Policy Brief
Domestic-content rules differ between federal procurement and infrastructure assistance. Comparing the governing standards shows how thresholds, cost definitions, delivery dates, and procurement design influence competition, supplier investment, and the capability actually created.
Policy Brief
Federal awards become useful infrastructure through recipient capacity, procurement, construction, and operation. Grant performance and pass-through rules clarify why obligations, payments, completed work, and service outcomes are different measures of execution.
Policy Brief
Investment screening changes transaction timing, operating arrangements, and post-closing exposure. CFIUS materials show why jurisdiction, filing requirements, declaration outcomes, mitigation, and contractual risk allocation require separate treatment in the investment case.
Comparative Study
American and euro-area quarterly GDP releases commonly use different rate conventions. Reconciliation of annualized and quarter-on-quarter growth establishes the basis for comparison before differences in economic performance can be assessed.
Comparative Study
U.S. and Chinese consumption ratios reflect both household behavior and the allocation of income across sectors. Matched expenditure measures and an explicit accounting bridge distinguish rebalancing, public provision and changes in domestic demand.
Comparative Study
Factory construction and manufacturing investment cover different assets, firms and stages of completion. U.S. construction definitions and German investment statistics provide a basis for reconciling the measures before drawing conclusions about productive capacity.
Comparative Study
A U.S.–UK productivity comparison must align sector boundaries, actual hours and output prices. Recent official methodological evidence shows why changes in measured labor input can alter the apparent gap without changing recorded production.
Comparative Study
Mortgage contracts determine when interest-rate changes reach household payments. U.S. fixed-rate lending and Canadian renewal schedules illustrate how similar borrowing balances can generate different cash-flow timing, mobility incentives and distributions of risk.
Comparative Study
U.S.–Mexico production links distribute income across several stages and borders. Comparable value-added evidence, a regional-content calculation and Mexico’s distinct manufacturing statistic clarify what gross trade can establish about domestic value capture.
Comparative Study
Debt contracts determine when market-rate changes reach borrowers, depositors and lenders. Evidence from the United States, euro area and Japan is compared through a common repricing matrix that separates new-loan benchmarks, outstanding interest costs and scheduled cash payments.
Comparative Study
American historical-base and French volume-based research credits require different evaluation counterfactuals. Worked examples distinguish statutory eligibility, current spending growth, multi-year incentives, and additional research attributable to support, including the effects of firm history and credit usability.
Comparative Study
Import concentration changes with product detail, partner definitions, and regional boundaries. US, Chinese, and Eurostat compilation rules frame original examples showing how pooled diversification can conceal single-source components and how rerouting can leave production dependence unchanged.
Comparative Study
U.S. industry productivity releases and India's factory survey require matched employment and output boundaries. A three-activity example separates the effects of sector mix, working schedules, productivity, and outsourcing on the apparent employment intensity of expansion.
Comparative Study
Federal Reserve, ECB, and MAS documents show why target ranges, administered rates, and exchange-rate bands need distinct treatment. Real-rate and import-price examples identify the assumptions required before comparing monetary settings or translating them into business exposure.
Data Note
Chained-dollar expenditure components can fail to sum to real GDP without an accounting error. A reproducible two-good example explains nonadditivity and identifies the measures appropriate for shares and contributions to growth.
Data Note
Payroll employment counts jobs, while household employment counts people across a broader range of work. Worked examples show how second jobs and shifts into self-employment can produce different movements without contradictory observations.
Data Note
Inflation comparisons depend on the basket, weights and interval being measured. Explicit index calculations distinguish core inflation, contributions to headline inflation, annualized monthly momentum and the realized change over twelve months.
Data Note
Equal debt stocks can carry different near-term interest exposure. A refinancing schedule shows why fixed coupons, maturity dates and floating-rate resets must be examined before translating a market-rate change into budget costs.
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Browse economiesBrowse topicsFollow real household purchasing power, the composition of business fixed investment, credit availability and the execution of public investment. Relate each to the period and evidence used in the study rather than treating a single release as a comprehensive outlook.
The specific releases, tables and policy documents supporting the analysis are cited in the individual publications.