Country research
Research on Chinese domestic expenditure, production networks, credit transmission and the relationship between public finance and investment.
China’s production links connect domestic spending, imported inputs and foreign final demand. Gross exports therefore provide one view of exposure, while value-added and expenditure measures provide others. Research examines the distinction between where a product is shipped and where the demand and income associated with its production arise.
Central and local public finance affect investment through different revenue sources, transfers and expenditure responsibilities. Bank credit, property-related cash flows and project financing can interact without moving together. Analysis follows the institutional boundary and the terms of financing before interpreting an aggregate credit or spending figure.
| Research dimension | Measure | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|
| Growth composition | Expenditure contributions to real GDP | Do not read percentage-point contributions as expenditure growth rates. |
| Local finance | Budget revenue, transfers and fund accounts | Keep general public budgets and government-managed funds distinct. |
| External exposure | Gross exports and value-added links | Identify the production stage and final-demand market under discussion. |
China’s 2025 statistical communiqué reports real growth of 5.0 percent, with final consumption, capital formation and net exports making different contributions. The domestic expenditure study relates those accounts to production links. A separate local-finance study examines the 2025 final accounts and the 2026 transfer framework; it keeps land-related receipts distinct from general-budget resources.
Research Report
Public support may change whether, where or when an investment takes place. This report establishes the counterfactual evidence needed to distinguish additional investment from displacement, timing changes and projects that would have proceeded without support.
Read the analysisResearch Report
A change in direct import partners can exceed the shift in upstream value added. Official production evidence and reproducible supply-chain examples distinguish relocation, supplier development, ownership, routing, and the dependencies relevant to resilience.
Read the analysisEconomy Study
China's expenditure accounts identify immediate purchasers, while production networks reveal the final markets supporting domestic income. Reconciling the two explains why consumption, investment, and export growth create different business exposures.
Read the analysis11 publications
Research Report
Public support may change whether, where or when an investment takes place. This report establishes the counterfactual evidence needed to distinguish additional investment from displacement, timing changes and projects that would have proceeded without support.
Research Report
A change in direct import partners can exceed the shift in upstream value added. Official production evidence and reproducible supply-chain examples distinguish relocation, supplier development, ownership, routing, and the dependencies relevant to resilience.
Economy Study
China's expenditure accounts identify immediate purchasers, while production networks reveal the final markets supporting domestic income. Reconciling the two explains why consumption, investment, and export growth create different business exposures.
Economy Study
China's local investment depends on recurring revenue, transfers, land-related receipts, and distinct borrowing arrangements. The 2025 final accounts illustrate why financing availability must be reconciled with repayment responsibilities and whole-life project costs.
Policy Brief
Chinese monetary transmission depends on the instrument, bank funding, borrower risk, and contractual repricing. The brief distinguishes new-loan averages from continuing borrowers' costs and identifies the evidence needed to separate weak credit demand from constrained supply.
Policy Brief
China's 2025 consumer-goods support illustrates how eligibility, caps, and replacement conditions shape household responses. The assessment separates supported transactions from additional consumption, purchases brought forward, product substitution, and the distribution of subsidy benefits.
Comparative Study
U.S. and Chinese consumption ratios reflect both household behavior and the allocation of income across sectors. Matched expenditure measures and an explicit accounting bridge distinguish rebalancing, public provision and changes in domestic demand.
Comparative Study
Export growth does not reveal the depth of a domestic supplier network. Matched textile evidence for China and Vietnam, combined with a two-stage sourcing account, distinguishes local purchasing, domestic value creation and the development of productive capabilities.
Comparative Study
Import concentration changes with product detail, partner definitions, and regional boundaries. US, Chinese, and Eurostat compilation rules frame original examples showing how pooled diversification can conceal single-source components and how rerouting can leave production dependence unchanged.
Data Note
Nominal sales combine prices and quantities, whereas real output removes price effects within a defined production boundary. A price-volume example explains why Chinese activity indicators cannot be compared by their headline growth rates alone.
Data Note
Export values expressed in renminbi and dollars can grow at different rates even when the underlying shipments are identical. The conversion identity separates currency translation from product prices, quantities and exporters' realized receipts.
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Browse economiesBrowse topicsExamine household spending, the composition of investment, land-related fiscal receipts, transfers and credit allocation. Different publication periods and accounting boundaries should remain visible when these are combined in an assessment.
The specific releases, tables and policy documents supporting the analysis are cited in the individual publications.