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Research program

Evidence-Based Policy and Institutional Innovation Program

Institutions turn public objectives into rules, incentives, decisions, and services. Their design affects the information available, the people and transactions covered, the costs of participation, and the responsibility for delivery. This program examines how those arrangements can be improved and what evidence would establish that a particular change has worked.

Evidence is part of the decision from the outset. A clear objective identifies the result to be achieved; a credible baseline establishes the relevant alternative; implementation records reveal what occurred; evaluation connects the change with its economic consequences. Institutional innovation has value when it improves that chain or removes an identified obstacle within it.

Define the decision before choosing the indicator

A useful institutional assessment begins with the transaction or service affected. An approval process, a funding contract, a payment interface, and a budget classification present different problems. Each requires a defined user, a responsible institution, and a result that can be observed at the appropriate stage.

The program asks how information and incentives shape the decision. Which requirement supplies necessary evidence? Where does an avoidable delay arise? Does a reporting measure reward the intended result or a more easily counted activity? Can a different allocation of responsibility improve continuity between approval and operation? These questions keep institutional reform connected to the economic objective it serves.

Measurement itself can change interpretation. A lending rate is an average over changing borrowers demonstrates how composition can reverse the movement of an aggregate. Before a policy response is attributed to improved access, the comparison should identify whose terms changed and what happened to the volume and composition of transactions.

Recover the alternative that the intervention changed

A supported project can be completed successfully while differing little from the investment that would otherwise have occurred. Another intervention can change location, timing, scale, technology, or the willingness to proceed. Those are different contributions and carry different implications for public value.

Establishing additionality in industrial investment support develops the baseline, financial comparison, and evidence needed to distinguish them. The program uses that framework to evaluate the margin on which an institution changes behavior, including effects on competitors and activity outside the supported organization.

The evaluation unit matters. A gain at one facility can partly reflect movement from another site. A grant can combine with tax relief, a guarantee, or public infrastructure. An appraisal should retain the complete support package and an appropriate market or public-sector boundary. This produces a more informative assessment of cost and results than a ratio of announced investment to one visible subsidy.

Preserve the record from commitment to service

Implementation has several clocks. Funding can be announced before a contract, financial flows can precede construction, and an installation can wait for a network connection before it operates. The program studies records that make these transitions traceable and permit a fair judgment about progress.

From investment announcements to operating capacity examines official investment reporting and a project-stage ledger. Its examples distinguish cash expenditure, project counts, available capacity, and actual output. The appropriate completion measure follows the question and retains a stable project cohort.

Permitting decisions and infrastructure investment timing examines FERC’s framework for studying and connecting generating facilities to the transmission system. That process governs one part of development, alongside siting and other applicable approvals. A faster interconnection decision can improve delivery when it removes a binding delay; equipment, network work, readiness, and subsequent studies may remain critical. Reform should be assessed through the entire delivery schedule and the service eventually available to users.

Digital systems as institutional changes

Digital interfaces can reduce transaction effort and create useful records. Their effects on administrative status, finance, and productivity depend on the institutions and business practices connected to them. The program examines those links, including usable information, consent, interoperability, reliability, and the capacity to act on a record.

India’s digital payments and the small-enterprise productivity test separates payment adoption, registration, credit access, and productive performance. A merchant can benefit from easier reconciliation without borrowing; a lender can obtain better information while still finding repayment capacity inadequate. These distinctions locate the friction that a further reform would need to address.

The evaluation follows sustained use and relevant cost alongside the initial adoption count. It also considers selection: businesses choosing a system may already differ in demand, organization, or growth prospects. Comparisons should account for those conditions before assigning the entire observed performance difference to the interface.

Make public accounts useful for oversight

Budget categories define financing and reporting relationships. They can support oversight when their institutional coverage and connection to final delivery are clear. India's capital budget from provision to execution examines original and revised estimates, capital-asset grants, expenditure, and outcomes. The institutional lesson is to preserve the reconciliation rather than allow one broad spending label to carry every claim about investment.

Cross-country comparisons require the same discipline. Comparing American and euro-area quarterly growth aligns rate conventions and information sets before interpreting a difference. This provides a compact example of how an apparently substantive disagreement can begin with different statistical presentations.

For policy design, useful transparency includes the objective, the applicable rule, the evidence of implementation, and the assumption carrying the conclusion. The program examines whether an alternative presentation or procedure makes the decision more intelligible and accountable while preserving information necessary for scrutiny.

Uncertainty that changes the decision

Conditional calculations can expose a financing gap, a delivery threshold, or the sensitivity of an appraisal. A scenario is a conditional calculation distinguishes that task from forecasting and explains how assumptions should be connected to a consistent economic account.

The program uses uncertainty to identify what needs to be learned. A result sensitive to one unresolved parameter calls for targeted evidence or a staged commitment. A conclusion stable across plausible alternatives can support a firmer decision. Numerical detail should make those differences visible, with the limits of inference stated alongside the result.

Read and examine the argument

Begin with additionality, then follow the investment ledger into the infrastructure decision. The digital-payments report examines a different institutional mechanism, while the budget and growth studies resolve public-accounting and comparison problems. The lending-rate note and scenario explainer supply focused tests of composition and conditional reasoning.

Research and editorial methods describes the standards applied to source selection, calculations, inference, and corrections. The program connects those standards with the substantive agendas in all five programs, allowing a reader to move from a proposed institutional change to the evidence needed to judge it.

Selected research

Program publications

38 publications

Comparative Study

Fiscal rules and investment delivery

Britain's fiscal charter and Germany's infrastructure special fund address different fiscal boundaries. A delivery-stage account separates borrowing authorization, contracts, disbursement, completed assets, and operating services, showing why additional funding and effective investment require separate assessment.

Policy Brief

Consumption support and household spending responses

China's 2025 consumer-goods support illustrates how eligibility, caps, and replacement conditions shape household responses. The assessment separates supported transactions from additional consumption, purchases brought forward, product substitution, and the distribution of subsidy benefits.

Policy Brief

European investment funding from allocation to delivery

European recovery funding links payments to milestones and targets rather than a simple total of reimbursed invoices. The brief reconciles allocations, disbursements, national execution, and service delivery, retaining the distinct deadlines and evidence relevant to the RRF's final implementation stage.

Policy Brief

India's capital budget from provision to execution

India’s 2026–27 capital provision grows at different rates against the preceding original and revised estimates. This brief reconciles those baselines, capital-asset grants, expenditure records, and service delivery before interpreting the budget’s economic impulse.

Economic Explainer

Budget balances across institutional boundaries

Fiscal balances depend on institutional coverage, consolidation and the timing of recognition. A government-transfer example demonstrates how the same transactions generate different central-government, general-government and cash-flow measures without an accounting contradiction.

Economic Explainer

A scenario is a conditional calculation

A scenario reports what follows from specified assumptions; a forecast adds a judgment about likely outcomes. An explicit fiscal calculation shows how sensitivity, consistency and uncertainty should be presented without assigning unsupported probabilities.

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