American Economic Senate

Search research

Country research

Türkiye

Research on Turkish inflation, corporate pricing, external financing and the composition of investment.

The 15 July Martyrs Bridge across the Bosphorus in Istanbul.
The 15 July Martyrs Bridge across the Bosphorus in Istanbul. · Image credit

Economic structure

Inflation affects firms through input costs, pricing decisions, working capital and contracts. Exchange-rate movements and administered prices can alter the timing and distribution of those effects. Research distinguishes changes in relative prices from the persistence of general price increases.

Policy and financial setting

Disinflation measures operate through monetary conditions, credit, expectations and fiscal decisions. External finance adds exposure through currency, maturity and the use of funds. A change in financing availability can support productive investment or different balance-sheet transactions; its composition matters.

Indicators and interpretation

Research dimension Measure Interpretation
Inflation Price indexes and component changes Separate monthly rates, annual rates and base effects.
Credit Lending terms, borrower groups and currency Retain nominal and real measures and the relevant deflator.
External funding Flows, liabilities and maturity Distinguish financing of new capacity from refinancing and other transactions.

Assessment and research periods

The Central Bank's Inflation Report 2026-I examines repricing and backward indexation around late 2025 and January 2026. Those mechanisms can sustain cost adjustment even as annual inflation falls. Inflation persistence and corporate pricing separates base effects, current monthly changes and contractual behavior. External-finance research complements that assessment by examining the maturity and currency composition of company obligations rather than reading a single interest rate as the cost of all financing.

Selected research

Research Report

Fiscal room under external financing constraints

Currency composition, repricing, and refinancing determine the payments behind a debt ratio. Four official debt-management records and an original stress calculation explain how revenue volatility and foreign-currency requirements constrain usable fiscal room.

Read the analysis

Economy Study

Inflation persistence and corporate pricing in Türkiye

Turkish inflation persistence reflects interacting exchange-rate costs, indexation, expectations, and pricing horizons. This study separates headline disinflation from changes in corporate behavior and identifies the evidence needed to establish more durable price stability.

Read the analysis

Research on Türkiye

7 publications

Comparative Study

Disinflation under different external exposures

Brazilian and Turkish policy evidence highlights exchange-rate exposure, inflation expectations and backward indexation as distinct transmission channels. Controlled examples separate imported-price effects, persistent contract adjustment and administered-price changes without assigning unsupported national pass-through coefficients.

Variables to follow

Assess pricing behavior, expectations, administered-price adjustments and the maturity of external obligations. The policy stance should be interpreted through its transmission to credit and spending, with the period of observation clearly stated.

Official sources

The specific releases, tables and policy documents supporting the analysis are cited in the individual publications.

Related research topics